I've decided to move the Del.icio.us posts to my main blog, as they're now less exclusively end of cyberspace-related.
The question "Who owns the future?" has become more urgent. At the same time, in the information society, there is an increasingly varied multitude of answers to this question. Hence, the key becomes asking well-targeted questions. If you ask who owns the future, a lot of answers crop up.... The moment you own the future, it has become the present. Eternally owned is only that which is lost."
The project builds on and adds value to existing national structures and competences in foresight and horizon scanning to create synergies and exploit complementarities. SESTI aims to provide a transnational “foundation” to horizon scanning to enable efficient use of anticipatory intelligence in both EU and national policy.
A variety of different foresight and forward-looking projects and institutions have been presented at the conference. It has been a tour through all different perspectives of future-related activities which included quantitative forecasting and modeling, scenario development, technology forecasts and roadmaps, societal and cultural oriented future studies, participatory elements in foresight, weak signal and wild card research, foresight databases and ideas about new methods like using gaming and social networks for foresight and forward looking activities.
As a result, iKNOW puts forward a novel ‘horizon scanning 2.0’ approach which, on the one hand, promotes participatory and bottom-up scanning supported by web 2.0 technologies, and, on the other hand, improves information collection, filtering, communication and exploitation.
"Exercises are not all created equal," says Michael Wermuth, director of homeland security programs at the nonprofit RAND Corp. "There are a lot of different kinds of exercises, a lot of different methodologies used to conduct exercises."
This Handbook provides a novel and stimulating integration of work on imagination and mental simulation from a variety of perspectives.... [and] enlightens psychologists to the notion that a wide-range of mental simulation phenomena may actually share a commonality of underlying processes.
I really like this notion. It fits nicely with the tenets of collective intelligence and social business intelligence approaches to decision making. In order to be able to adapt, a business has to be able to have an accurate and up-to-date read on what’s really going on, which is exactly the insight such applications deliver.
Thing is, forecasting is still vital. General Patton’s famous quote comes to mind: “A good plan, violently executed now is better than a perfect plan next week.”
He cites Scottish moral philosopher Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations: ‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from regard to their own self-interest’. This is the basis of the economic system, a benign unintended consequence of motive.
However, he believes that perverse, unanticipated consequences are more frequently the outcome of well-intended laws. In 1692, the English philosopher John Locke argued against a Parliamentary bill designed to cut maximum interest rate from 6% to 4%, on the grounds that some would avoid the rule and there’d be less credit for poor people."
Bribery? The Great Wall, it turns out, is a perfect emblem of the Chinese walls now under scrutiny, though not for the reason that anyone thinks. The original, like its criticized namesakes, didn’t work very well — and turned downright porous when money was involved.
The PRI will engage in ongoing scanning to assist in the identification of emerging issues that have the potential to shape the policy agenda over the medium to longer term.
"But this isn’t the main theme the two events have in common. The main theme they have in common is much simpler than that, and has more moral valence.... The main theme they have in common is regulatory failure. The regulations weren’t strong enough, and the regulators didn’t do their jobs."
"On the other hand, when an unlikely event is all too easy to imagine, we often go in the opposite direction and overestimate the odds. After the 9/11 attacks, Americans canceled plane trips and took to the road. There were no terrorist attacks in this country in 2002, yet the additional driving apparently led to an increase in traffic fatalities."
Our brains have evolved to take the quickest and most efficient route to a decision, based on experience and a set of innate and unconscious rules developed since birth to negotiate our physical and social environment. Start considering lots of other information and variables, and the brain slows down or falters. Simplicity, writes Gigerenzer, is an evolutionary adaptation to uncertainty: "A complex problem demands a complex solution, so we are told. In fact, in unpredictable environments, the opposite is true.""
The study finds a common statistical distribution for insurgency attacks that is significantly different to the distribution of attacks in traditional wars. This finding supports the belief that insurgent wars represent "fourth generation warfare" with different dynamics from conventional wars.
"Despite the many different discussions of various wars, different historical features, tribes, geography and cause, we find that the way humans fight modern (present and probably future) wars is the same," he says. "Just like traffic patterns in Tokyo, London and Miami are pretty much the same."
This article began as an effort to identify challenges the U.S. Army must prepare to face, but I soon realized that many of those challenges are connected to the other armed forces, the interagency, and the broader U.S. Government. Therefore, I address elements of our national power beyond just the military. The complexities of today's national security environment demand that we reevaluate missions across the U.S. Government, embrace the requirements for full-spectrum operations, and preserve our most important military principles while adjusting our organizations and values development."
I write about people, technology, and the worlds they make.
I'm a senior consultant at Strategic Business Insights, a Menlo Park, CA consulting and research firm. I'm also a visitor at the Peace Innovation Lab at Stanford University. (I also have profiles on Linked In, Google Scholar and Academia.edu.)
I began thinking seriously about contemplative computing in the winter of 2011 while a Visiting Researcher in the Socio-Digital Systems Group at Microsoft Research, Cambridge. I wanted to figure out how to design information technologies and user experiences that promote concentration and deep focused thinking, rather than distract you, fracture your attention, and make you feel dumb. You can read about it on my Contemplative Computing Blog.
My book on contemplative computing, The Distraction Addiction, was published by Little, Brown and Company in 2013.
My next book, Rest: Why Working Less Gets More Done, is under contract with Basic Books. Until it's out, you can follow my thinking about deliberate rest, creativity, and productivity on the project Web site.
The Distraction Addiction
My latest book, and the first book from the contemplative computing project. The Distraction Addiction is published by Little, Brown and Co.. It's been widely reviewed and garnered lots of good press. You can find your own copy at your local bookstore, or order it through Barnes & Noble, Amazon (check B&N first, as it's usually cheaper there), or IndieBound.
The Spanish edition
The Dutch edition
The Chinese edition
The Korean edition
Empire and the Sun
My first book, Empire and the Sun: Victorian Solar Eclipse Expeditions, was published with Stanford University Press in 2002 (order via Amazon).
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PUBLISHED IN 2013
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PUBLISHED IN 2011
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PUBLISHED IN 2009